Brexit?… Go Global… Go Wealthflow

To build a well-diversified portfolio, an investor has to look beyond any single country’s stock market and take a global approach.

To build a well-diversified portfolio, an investor has to look beyond any single country’s stock market and take a global approach.

How many shares make up the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (a widely used benchmark for the US equity market)? While the logical guess might be 5,000, as of 31 December 2016, the index actually contained around 3,600 names. In fact, the last time this index contained 5,000 or more companies was at the end of 2005. This mirrors the overall trend in the US stock market. In the past two decades there has been a decline in the number of US-listed, publicly traded companies.

The US is the largest stock market in the world accounting for around half of the value of all shares —so should investors worry about the decline in the number of listed companies there? We believe the answer is “no”. As noted below, the weight of the US in the global market is approximately 50–55%. For comparison, it was approximately 40% in 1995.

Percent of World Market Capitalisations as of 31 December 2016
Percent of World Market Capitalisations as of 31 December 2016

U.S. Against the World

When looked at globally, the number of publicly listed companies has not declined. In fact, the number of firms listed on US, non-US developed, and emerging markets exchanges has increased from about 23,000 in 1995 to 33,000 at the end of 2016. While it is true that in the US there are fewer publicly listed firms today than there were in the mid-1990s (a decrease of about 2,500), it is clear that the increase in listings both in developed markets outside the US and in emerging markets has more than offset the decline in US listings. Although there is no consensus about why US listings have decreased over this period of time, a number of academic studies have explored possible reasons for this change. One line of investigation considered if changes in the regulatory environment for listed companies in the US relative to other countries may explain why there are fewer listed firms. Another considered if, since the 2000s, private companies have had a greater propensity to sell themselves to larger companies rather than list themselves. In either case, the implication for investors based on the numbers alone is clear—the number of publicly listed companies around the world has increased, not decreased.

A Global Approach

For investors looking to build diversified portfolios, the implications of the trend in listings is clear. The global equity market is large and represents a world of investment opportunities. While diversifying globally implies an investor’s portfolio is unlikely to be the best performing relative to any one domestic stock market, it also means it is unlikely to be the worst performing. Diversification provides the means to achieve a more consistent outcome and can help reduce the risks associated with overconcentration in any one country. By having a truly global investment approach, investors have the opportunity to capture returns wherever they occur.

Conclusion

While there has been a decline in the number of US-listed, publicly traded companies, this decline has been more than offset by an increase in listings in non-US markets. While the reasons behind this trend are not clear, the implications for investors today are clearer—to build a well-diversified portfolio, an investor has to look beyond any single country’s stock market and take a global approach.

Duncan R Glassey
Senior Partner – Wealthflow LLP

duncan.glassey@wealthflow.com

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated. Errors and omissions excepted.