Our
Clients

Financial
Planning

Investment
Philosophy

About
WealthFlow

Latest
Comment

Contact

Our Clients

Financial Planning

Investment Philosophy

About WealthFlow

Latest Comment

Contact

Our
Clients

Financial
Planning

Investment
Philosophy

About
WealthFlow

Latest
Comment

Contact

20th
Jun
2024

Will Scotland or England win the Euros? Please don’t count on it.

<br />
Will Scotland or England win the Euros? Please don't count on it.

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
– Yogi Berra

The UEFA EURO 2024 football championship has well and truly begun. Like many football fans, we’re excited about some great matches and hope our favourite team does well.

We all want our team to win, but what should we realistically expect? I asked a friend who loves the English national team if he felt good about England being the favourite to win, according to the betting odds. He didn’t. Maybe he, like me, has seen too many times when England’s hopes were dashed in penalty shoot-outs. But is he right to doubt the betting odds?

To find out, we looked at the last five European championships and compared the teams’ final positions with their pre-tournament betting odds. We found that predicting the winner is hard. Only once in the last five tournaments did the favourite win – Spain in 2012.

This isn’t surprising to those of us in the investment world. Studies show that trying to pick winners, whether stocks or fund managers, usually doesn’t work.

However, we did find something interesting. The odds were much more accurate when we looked at how well the betting odds predicted the teams that made it to the quarterfinals. Out of 40 quarterfinal spots from 2004 to 2020, the odds correctly predicted 27 of them, or 68%. It seems the market is better at predicting which teams will do well overall, even if it can’t pick the ultimate winner.

This is very similar to investing. We believe that market prices can help us identify groups of stocks that are likely to perform well, even if we can’t pick individual winners. By looking at characteristics like size, price, or profitability, we can make better long-term predictions.

Whether or not your team wins on Sunday, July 14, enjoy the game for what it is – a game. But if you’re considering betting, the best advice from this analysis might be to bet on England to make the last eight.

Duncan R Glassey
Founder & Director – WealthFlow
duncan.glassey@wealthflow.com

 

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated. Errors and omissions excepted.

News to your inbox

Register to receive occasional updates from WealthFlow to your inbox.

WealthFlow will only use the information you provide in this form to contact you and no other purpose. Please read our privacy policy.

© 2024 WealthFlow Group Limited : All Rights Reserved | Privacy | Cookies Policy

Head Office & Consulting Rooms: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.

Mail correspondence to our Central Scotland Admin Hub: WealthFlow Group Limited, PO Box 14947, Grangemouth FK3 3AU.

WealthFlow Group Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The guidance/advice contained in this website is subject to the UK regulatory regime and is therefore restricted to consumers based in the UK.

For your protection, unresolved complaints can be referred to the Financial Ombudsman Service.

To contact the Financial Ombudsman Service, please visit www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk.

WealthFlow Group Ltd. Registered in Scotland No SC635011. Registered Office: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.

© 2024 WealthFlow Group Limited
All Rights Reserved | Privacy | Cookies Policy

Head Office & Consulting Rooms: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.

Mail correspondence to our Central Scotland Admin Hub: WealthFlow Group Limited, PO Box 14947, Grangemouth FK3 3AU.

WealthFlow Group Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The guidance/advice contained in this website is subject to the UK regulatory regime and is therefore restricted to consumers based in the UK.

For your protection, unresolved complaints can be referred to the Financial Ombudsman Service.

To contact the Financial Ombudsman Service, please visit www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk.

WealthFlow Group Ltd. Registered in Scotland No SC635011. Registered Office: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.