Uncertainty abounds – it always does. Basing investment decisions on forecasts or judgments is generally best avoided. Such forecasts or predictions can be used to create accountability or, perhaps at best, just for a bit of fun. After stating his column’s 2023 predictions, Robert Armstrong of the Financial Times questions:

‘Do I have high confidence in any of this? Heck no’.

There is no shortage of seemingly sensible predictions on market performance and global developments, nor any effective method to separate those that will be more or less accurate.

Investors should therefore look to the future with the anticipation that new information will come to light and markets will react quickly to take it into account. Without the ability to profit directly from superior information, one, therefore, should construct a diversified portfolio built to weather all storms, guided by an ever-growing body of academic literature. If, for example, inflation or growth comes in higher or lower than expected, some parts of the portfolio will – by design be helping and others detracting from performance. That is what diversification is!

With the reasonable belief that risk and reward go hand in hand, each day, it should be expected that incremental risk-taking in a portfolio will be rewarded, such as owning equities or bonds over cash held in bank accounts. However, on a daily (or even multi-year) basis – which in the context of a true investment time horizon is minuscule – the expected daily reward is dominated by unexpected noise, which can be positive or negative.

Remember, news outlets are biased towards reporting bad news, which is hardly surprising. Bad news sells.

Nicholas Kristof of the New York Times plainly states that journalists ‘report on planes that crash, not planes that land’ and writes a column on some significant achievements made by the human race in 2022. For example, solar power is now on track to overtake coal as the world’s leading power source in the next five years. Time away from day-to-day news can help one feel more positive, or reading information from news outlets such as Good News Network® can be a refreshing exercise. Enjoy a fulfilled 2023 and all the better news it may bring.

From an investing perspective, we are hopeful for the best in 2023 and beyond but remain prepared for the worst.

Duncan R Glassey
Founder & Director – WealthFlow
duncan.glassey@wealthflow.com

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated. Errors and omissions excepted.

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WealthFlow Group Ltd. Registered in Scotland No SC635011. Registered Office: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.

Head Office & Consulting Rooms: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.

Mail correspondence to our Central Scotland Admin Hub: WealthFlow Group Limited, PO Box 14947, Grangemouth FK3 3AU.

WealthFlow Group Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The guidance/advice contained in this website is subject to the UK regulatory regime and is therefore restricted to consumers based in the UK.

For your protection, unresolved complaints can be referred to the Financial Ombudsman Service.

To contact the Financial Ombudsman Service, please visit www.financial-ombudsman.org.uk.

WealthFlow Group Ltd. Registered in Scotland No SC635011. Registered Office: 10 Charlotte Square, Edinburgh EH2 4DR.